On-Chain Data Summary
Dominance Indicators
Bitcoin Dominance: Since October 2025, Bitcoin dominance has continued to trade sideways in the high-50% range. It currently sits at approximately 59.05%, showing no significant movement.
Ethereum Dominance: Ethereum dominance has been declining since mid-January 2026, bottoming at 10.37% in early March before continuing its descent to the current level of around 9.48%. Ethereum dominance has remained on a persistent downward trajectory in recent weeks.
USDT & USDC Dominance: Both USDT and USDC dominance declined from March onward but have been rising sharply again since May 1. This reflects an increasing shift toward cash positions amid broadly unfavorable conditions across the crypto market.
Total 2 & Total 3 Dominance: Altcoin dominance has been on a continuous decline since May 1.
In summary, Bitcoin dominance shows little directional movement, while Ethereum and altcoin dominance are declining sharply. In contrast, the stablecoin share is rising. Overall, the crypto market is exhibiting weakness consistent with current price action.
Coinbase Premium
Bitcoin Coinbase Premium: The Coinbase Premium indicator has remained negative since April 28. While the magnitude of the negative reading (outflow volume) cannot be considered large, the fact that it has stayed negative for nearly two months is a concerning signal. The negative premium has steepened further following the CFTC's approval of derivatives products.
Ethereum Coinbase Premium: Like Bitcoin, Ethereum turned negative on April 28 and has remained negative for nearly two months.
Exchange Data
Bitcoin Exchange Reserves: Bitcoin exchange reserves began rising on April 26, setting a short-term high on June 4 before declining and entering a sideways pattern. It appears likely that institutions and whales transferred substantial volumes to exchanges during May. From May 15 to June 3, Bitcoin ETFs recorded 13 consecutive days of net outflows, and the volume deposited from ETFs to exchanges was directly observable. Notably, Strategy's first-ever sale of Bitcoin also occurred in late May, and the STRC depegging event took place in early June.
Bitcoin Total Exchange Inflows: Total exchange inflows declined slightly compared to the prior period. The actual volume of BTC moving from external wallets to exchanges over the specified period did not increase significantly.
Ethereum Exchange Reserves: Ethereum reserves rose slightly beginning May 5, then declined again from June 3 before trading sideways — a pattern similar to Bitcoin.
Total Ethereum Staking Pool Deposits: Approximately 2,760,614 ETH are queued for deposit, versus roughly 153,485 ETH queued for withdrawal. In other words, the amount waiting to be staked overwhelmingly exceeds the amount waiting to exit the staking pool.
Ultimately, exchange reserves have been declining since the June 4 peak, and total exchange inflows are also falling. The Coinbase Premium has remained negative for two months since late April, and Bitcoin's price has recently been trending lower. Drawing a final conclusion from these four data points, spot liquidity is gradually diminishing while ETF outflows continue — an unfavorable dynamic overall. The current move carries more of the character of a derivatives- and global-liquidity-driven rebound than a rally led by U.S. institutional spot buying.
U.S.-Related Data
U.S. TGA Balance: After peaking on April 22, the TGA balance declined (releasing liquidity into the market) and has since rebounded. Key reference points on the chart: approximately \$1,005,968M on April 22, 2026 (all-time high); approximately \$877,761M on May 6, 2026 (prior analysis point); approximately \$750,000M in mid-May 2026 (the low — a further sharp drop after the previous analysis); and \$880,713M as of June 17, 2026 (most recent), now rebounding. The TGA has been refilling since mid-May, recovering from the \$750,000M low to \$880,713M by June 17 — roughly \$130,000M (about \$130 billion) of liquidity absorbed in about four weeks. In other words, market liquidity is once again being drawn back into government accounts. This marks an inflection point in the liquidity cycle: an initial liquidity release in April–May, followed by renewed absorption in May–June.
Reverse Repo (RRP): Currently around \$306 million. Of note, after a modest rise to roughly \$500 million around April 10, there has been little change. The balance effectively remains at a near-zero, rock-bottom level.
For reference, TGA and RRP are defined as follows. The TGA (Treasury General Account) is, in simple terms, the U.S. government's bank account — an account the U.S. Treasury holds at the Federal Reserve. Just as we open accounts at a bank, the government keeps an account at the Fed and holds money there. Funds flow into this account through two main channels: collecting taxes, or borrowing via the issuance of Treasury securities. Conversely, money leaves the account when the government spends on items such as federal salaries, welfare, and defense. The Reverse Repo (RRP) is, in simple terms, an ultra-short-term deposit "parking lot" operated by the Fed. Institutions such as money market funds (MMFs) park excess cash they have no other place to deploy at the Fed overnight, earning safe interest, and the funds are returned the next day — a process repeated daily. A large balance here means there is a substantial amount of idle cash in the market that has found no suitable place to be invested.
Bank Reserves: The decline from April 8 to 22 was likely tied to income-tax payments. Bank reserves rose again from April 29, then fell sharply from June 10 to 17. Market liquidity has decreased, and the drop in reserves implies that liquidity has shifted into other pockets — most likely the TGA or MMFs.
Fed Balance Sheet: The Fed's balance sheet, which reflects its total assets, has been rising steadily since January 7, 2026, increasing from \$6,573,602M on January 7 to \$6,709,505M on May 6 — roughly \$135.9 billion of asset growth in about four months. Whatever the rhetoric of tightening may suggest, the actual figures clearly show the Fed's balance sheet has pivoted toward supplying liquidity (easing). RMP (short-term Treasury purchases) appeared to have stopped, given no further announcements after May 13 — but that is not the case. Per the New York Fed's official statement, \$10B in purchases are scheduled over the monthly period through July 13, with an additional \$16.5B in reinvestment purchases to be conducted separately. In short, the Fed's quantitative easing is still ongoing.
U.S. M2 Growth: U.S. M2 growth is on a gradually increasing trend. M2 is, in a word, the headline gauge of the "total amount of money circulating in the economy" — think of it as a large vessel showing how much money is moving through the U.S. economy as a whole. Money, however, comes in various forms: some is immediately spendable, like the cash in your wallet, while some is tied up and not usable right away, like a savings deposit. Economists categorize these into tiers based on how easily they can be spent (liquidity). By tier: M1 (the most readily spendable money) consists of physical cash plus demand deposits and checking-account balances that can be withdrawn immediately. M2 adds to M1 the money that, while not instantly accessible, can be converted to cash relatively easily — specifically small-denomination time deposits, savings deposits, and retail money market funds (MMFs). As a simple analogy, M1 is "your wallet plus your everyday checking account," while M2 adds "deposits and savings you can tap with just a little effort."
Bank Credit: This indicator tracks how much bank lending has grown. Banks continue to expand their lending, which means money is flowing into the economy.
Global M2: After a modest rebound as of March 23, there has been no major change.
In summary, the U.S. TGA balance is currently rising, and the Fed's balance sheet is expanding (quantitative easing). Conversely, bank reserves are declining meaningfully — and a meaningful drop in reserves strongly suggests liquidity has migrated elsewhere, most likely into the TGA or MMFs. From a Wall Street institutional and macro perspective, then, capital is likely rotating into the bond market amid the delayed normalization of the Strait of Hormuz and a hawkish FOMC tone.
From now through the end of June, one should leave open the possibility of a bout of market turbulence. The primary driver is first-half rebalancing. Assets that generated gains from January through June may see profit-taking, while the bond market may attract inflows — meaning this is a window in which selling pressure in equities and buying demand in bonds could emerge simultaneously.
On top of this, with the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz running later than the market expected, investor attention is shifting back to post-conflict inflation and interest rates. In particular, the rise in short-term yields by roughly 0.15bp following the FOMC, to around 4.199%, is an important variable. When short-term rates are elevated, capital struggles to flow into risk-asset markets, since assets like equities and crypto are ultimately heavily influenced by liquidity and the rate environment.
Accordingly, two conditions appear necessary for the market to move strongly again. First, short-term rates need to fall meaningfully — which could materialize through the FOMC reaffirming its intent to cut rates. Second, the market needs a signal that inflation will not rise significantly even after the conflict. From this standpoint, the U.S. CPI release on July 14 is likely to be a critical inflection point. For equities, the AI semiconductor narrative remains alive, so the possibility of a continued bull market is still intact — the structural trends of Big Tech capex, AI infrastructure investment, and expanding semiconductor demand remain in place. Even if a short-term correction occurs, equities therefore have room to resume their uptrend.
The crypto market, by contrast, warrants greater caution. If the current rate burden and liquidity stagnation persist through July, a strong summer rally looks realistically difficult, as crypto is more sensitive to liquidity shifts than equities. That said, the possibility of upside has not vanished entirely. Should events that could provide new policy narratives for the crypto market materialize — such as inclusion in the National Defense Authorization Act, the CLARITY Act, or the announcement of a Bitcoin reserve bill — the mood could change. Ultimately, the keys to the July market are rates, inflation, and policy narrative. Equities have a relatively good chance of holding up on the back of the AI semiconductor trend, whereas the crypto market needs confirmation of either falling short-term rates or policy momentum before any meaningful upside can be discussed.