⚡ up to 6.5¢ / share
4 arb outcomes
Geopolitics
resolves 2026-12-31
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Kim Jong Un
36.5¢
30.0¢
Buy NO@Poly 63.5¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 30.0¢
→ lock 6.5¢
Pope Leo XIV
9.5¢
14.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 9.5¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 85.5¢
→ lock 5.0¢
Vladimir Putin
45.5¢
42.5¢
Buy NO@Poly 54.5¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 42.5¢
→ lock 3.0¢
Nicolás Maduro
5.5¢
7.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 5.5¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 92.5¢
→ lock 2.0¢
Mohammed bin Salman
68.5¢
67.5¢
— no edge
Lai Ching-te
3.5¢
4.5¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 5.1¢ / share
3 arb outcomes
Elections
resolves 2027-04-30
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Marine Le Pen
31.4¢
36.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 31.4¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 63.5¢
→ lock 5.1¢
François Hollande
3.2¢
6.0¢
Buy YES@Poly 3.2¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 94.0¢
→ lock 2.8¢
Jean-Luc Mélenchon
13.5¢
11.0¢
Buy NO@Poly 86.5¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 11.0¢
→ lock 2.5¢
Édouard Philippe
24.5¢
23.0¢
— no edge
Gabriel Attal
4.8¢
3.1¢
— no edge
Jordan Bardella
2.5¢
3.2¢
— no edge
David Lisnard
2.9¢
1.8¢
— no edge
Dominique de Villepin
1.8¢
2.8¢
— no edge
Sarah Knafo
1.8¢
2.4¢
— no edge
Bruno Retailleau
2.0¢
1.8¢
— no edge
Sébastien Lecornu
1.6¢
1.2¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 4.5¢ / share
2 arb outcomes
Sports
resolves 2027-05-30
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Barcelona
16.5¢
21.0¢
Buy YES@Poly 16.5¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 79.0¢
→ lock 4.5¢
Arsenal
15.5¢
13.5¢
Buy NO@Poly 84.5¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 13.5¢
→ lock 2.0¢
Bayern Munich
13.5¢
13.5¢
— no edge
Real Madrid
11.5¢
12.5¢
— no edge
Manchester City
8.5¢
8.5¢
— no edge
Liverpool
6.5¢
6.5¢
— no edge
Manchester United
2.9¢
4.5¢
— no edge
Napoli
0.8¢
2.0¢
— no edge
Aston Villa
1.1¢
1.5¢
— no edge
Sporting CP
0.7¢
1.0¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 3.8¢ / share
3 arb outcomes
Elections
resolves 2028-11-07
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
J.D. Vance
47.3¢
43.5¢
Buy NO@Poly 52.7¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 43.5¢
→ lock 3.8¢
Ron DeSantis
1.9¢
4.9¢
Buy YES@Poly 1.9¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 95.1¢
→ lock 3.0¢
Marco Rubio
20.3¢
22.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 20.3¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 77.5¢
→ lock 2.2¢
Tucker Carlson
2.6¢
3.4¢
— no edge
Ivanka Trump
0.7¢
1.2¢
— no edge
Ted Cruz
0.9¢
1.1¢
— no edge
Glenn Youngkin
0.9¢
1.0¢
— no edge
Thomas Massie
0.7¢
0.9¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 3.5¢ / share
Sports
resolves 2027-05-30
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Real Madrid
39.0¢
42.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 39.0¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 57.5¢
→ lock 3.5¢
Barcelona
58.0¢
57.5¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 3.1¢ / share
Elections
resolves 2026-11-04
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Democratic Party
94.1¢
97.2¢
Buy YES@Poly 94.1¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 2.8¢
→ lock 3.1¢
Republican Party
4.2¢
3.2¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 2.8¢ / share
2 arb outcomes
Elections
resolves 2028-11-07
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Jon Ossoff
14.7¢
17.5¢
Buy YES@Poly 14.7¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 82.5¢
→ lock 2.8¢
Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
22.1¢
19.5¢
Buy NO@Poly 77.9¢ +
Buy YES@Kalshi 19.5¢
→ lock 2.6¢
Gavin Newsom
14.9¢
14.5¢
— no edge
Kamala Harris
7.4¢
9.1¢
— no edge
Pete Buttigieg
5.2¢
4.8¢
— no edge
Josh Shapiro
5.0¢
4.5¢
— no edge
Mark Kelly
3.2¢
5.0¢
— no edge
Andy Beshear
2.5¢
3.6¢
— no edge
Rahm Emanuel
2.4¢
3.6¢
— no edge
Ro Khanna
2.2¢
1.8¢
— no edge
J.B. Pritzker
1.1¢
1.8¢
— no edge
Michelle Obama
0.7¢
1.2¢
— no edge
⚡ up to 2.7¢ / share
2 arb outcomes
Elections
resolves 2026-10-04
OutcomePoly YESKalshi YESArbitrage
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
5.3¢
8.0¢
Buy YES@Poly 5.3¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 92.0¢
→ lock 2.7¢
Renan Santos
3.7¢
6.0¢
Buy YES@Poly 3.7¢ +
Buy NO@Kalshi 94.0¢
→ lock 2.3¢
Flávio Bolsonaro
86.5¢
86.5¢
— no edge